Fuel prices, a trade war with Canada and a restless electorate give Republicans a difficult autumn

With five weeks until the midterm elections on November 3rd, Republicans find themselves on the wrong side of several issues voters say they care about. Some are of the party’s own making; others are not. Together, they help explain why races that should be safe, including a Senate seat in Texas, now look competitive.

Start with artificial intelligence. A CNN poll released on September 24th found that three-quarters of Americans feel fear or concern about the technology. The administration has nonetheless made rapid AI development, and the data centres that power it, a central economic priority, and has resisted state efforts to regulate the industry. Supporters argue that falling behind China would be the greater risk. So far, few voters seem persuaded.

The bigger problem is fuel. Few economic indicators track a president’s approval as closely as the price at the pump. Since the conflict with Iran began in February and disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, diesel has risen by 73%, to $6.52 a gallon. That hits Republican strongholds hardest, because diesel powers the tractors, machinery and trucks of rural America. Some Republican candidates in Iowa and Michigan have floated banning diesel exports, a controversial proposal.

Borrowing costs are adding to the squeeze. On September 29th the yield on 30-year Treasuries briefly topped 5.6%, its highest since June 2002, while the ten-year yield, the benchmark for mortgages, car loans and credit cards, reached about 5.25%. Investors cite stubborn inflation, large federal deficits and a growing supply of government debt. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter of a point in September, and traders now see a better than 70% chance of another increase in October. The effect reaches households quickly. By some measures the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has passed 7.5%, up by about a third of a percentage point in a single week, pushing home ownership further out of reach. The administration can point to a strong economy as the cause. Voters, however, tend to feel what they pay more directly than growth figures.

Then there is Canada. Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on roughly $20bn of American goods, which took effect on September 8th, were aimed squarely at states with competitive races. In Maine, where Canada buys about half of the autumn lobster catch, Susan Collins, the Republican incumbent, stresses that she has voted several times to end tariffs on Canadian goods. Her Democratic challenger, Troy Jackson, says she failed to stop them. In Michigan, where car supply chains cross the border, polls show Abdul El-Sayed, the Democrat, level with or ahead of Mike Rogers, his Republican opponent.

The most surprising contest is in Texas, which has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988. A Marist poll taken from September 17th to 20th put James Talarico, a Democratic state legislator and seminarian, on 50% to 44% for Ken Paxton, the state’s Republican attorney-general. The lead sits just outside the margin of error, and a majority of Texans still expect Mr Paxton to win. Texas has disappointed Democrats before.

Mr Talarico’s candidacy also reflects a broader Democratic bet. The party has recruited more candidates with religious and working-class backgrounds, hoping to shed its image as a party of coastal professionals. Republicans still hold a large advantage among white Christians, who rate Mr Trump roughly 20 points more favourably than the public as a whole. The more promising shift for Democrats may be among young men, who moved towards Mr Trump in 2024. A Third Way survey found that young men likely to vote favour Democrats by 61% to 31%.

None of this guarantees a Democratic wave. Five weeks is a long time in politics, fuel prices could ease if the Strait reopens, and incumbents such as Ms Collins have survived hostile climates before. But on the issues voters feel most directly, from the pump to the price of Canadian goods, Republicans are playing defence.

For Ottawa, the midterms are more than a spectator sport. Canada’s retaliatory tariffs were designed with these races in mind, and Mélanie Joly, the industry minister, has been open that the aim is to put pressure on particular states. A Democratic Congress could help ease the dispute by checking the president’s power to impose tariffs. But Canadians should not mistake campaign rhetoric for lasting friendship. For many Democrats, Canada is a convenient way to attack Mr Trump on prices, and that interest may fade once the votes are counted. Whoever wins, Canada will still need to make its own case in Washington.